MLB Preview – AL West Team Fielding

Continuing with the aggregated projections, today we’ll look at the fielding ability of each team’s starting eight. Player fielding prediction, despite recent advancements, is still more an art than science. For some current attempts at quantifying defense, see:

The Fans Scouting Report
Zone Rating converted to a run value
John Dewan’s Fielding Bible
Baseball Prospectus Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA)

By looking at combinations of these metrics, some research of my own, and a dollop of scouting opinion/insight, we should be able to discern the level of defensive performance of teams around the league. Team fielding will be measured as a number of runs above or below average, with positive numbers indicative of better team fielding. To give you an intuitive feel for the numbers, an individual who is 5 runs above average per year is good defensively (say 1 standard deviation above average), and 10 runs represents excellence (2 SDs, or about 2.5% of the MLB population). At a team level, 1 SD is more like 12-15 runs, and it is rare to see extremes beyond +/-30 runs unless driven by an extreme catcher rating (see more on catchers below).


PECOTA
As a first pass, PECOTA projects a FRAA value for every player at his primary position. By aggregating the statistics as in the earlier hitting projections (and assigning a -5 run per year rating to any player not playing their primary position), the projected AL defenses are:

PECOTA Projections
Anaheim Angels: 15 RPY
Oakland Athletics: 7 RPY
Texas Rangers: 4 RPY
Seattle Mariners: -3 RPY

The benefit of using the PECOTA projections is that they are just sitting here. The downside is that FRAA is not based on play-by-play data, instead trying to infer defensive ability from putouts, etc. The results are sometimes a little screwy. It also seems to me that PECOTA projections for catchers are especially wacky, since a catcher’s measurable defensive contribution is largely in controlling the running game. If I remove the catcher’s contribution from above, I get:

PECOTA Projections, No Catchers
Anaheim Angels: 6 RPY
Oakland Athletics: 5 RPY
Texas Rangers: -5 RPY
Seattle Mariners: -5 RPY

As you can see, removing the catcher changes the rankings considerably. PECOTA projects Mike Napoli as +8 RPY defensively, which would put him solidly in the upper quartile of catchers. It seems to me that PECOTA is relying too much on translated minor league statistics to make the projection. Based on his good (but limited) MLB fielding performance thus far, I would say he is more like +2 runs (with a big uncertainty).


POSITION BY POSITION
The next iteration is to incorporate some other information. We’ll use three sources: Chone Smith’s Zone Rating Projections, my own catcher projections based solely on expected CS%, and Tangotiger’s Fan Scouting Report.

Anaheim:

Player	Pos	ZRruns	Fan Score
Casey Kotchman	1B	2	58
Howie Kendrick	2B	N/A	52 (at 1B)
Orlando Cabrera	SS	0	67
Chone Figgins	3B	-2	56
Juan Rivera	LF	0	60
Garrett Anderson	LF	-3	39
Gary Matthews Jr.	CF	-1	79
Vladimir Guerrero	RF	-3	46
Mike Napoli	C	1	49

Looking at the rankings above and combining them with the PECOTA projections shows that there is really only disagreement on Howie Kendrick and Gary Matthews Jr. In the case of Matthews, PECOTA and Zone Rating agree that he is a slightly below average defender in CF. Additionally, the Fan Score prior to this year was significantly less positive than in 2006, leading me to believe that the fan score is being artificially raised by the amazing over-the-wall grab made in 2006. Howie Kendrick is difficult to decipher. His FRAA over the past years is excellent, leading PECOTA to project +14 runs per year. However, his Zone Rating at first base last year was quite average, and he was not considered a top defensive prospect in the minors. Combine that with the low fan score this year, and I am inclined to rate Kendrick fairly low, say +2. Incorporating all publicly available info, the consensus would be something like:

Angels Consensus Rankings

Player	Pos	Runs
Casey Kotchman	1B	3
Howie Kendrick	2B	0
Orlando Cabrera	SS	0
Chone Figgins	3B	-2
Juan Rivera	LF	0
Gary Matthews Jr.	CF	-1
Vladimir Guerrero	RF	-3
Mike Napoli	C	2
TOTAL		-1

Oakland:

Player	Pos	ZRruns	Fan Score
Nick Swisher	1B	-2	56 (as LF)
Mark Ellis	2B	11	74
Bobby Crosby	SS	9	69
Eric Chavez	3B	7	85
Bobby Kielty	LF	2	39
Mark Kotsay	CF	-6	82
Milton Bradley	RF	4	69
Jason Kendall	C	-2	58

There are big discrepancies with Mark Ellis, Bobby Crosby and Mark Kotsay. Ellis seems to be an error with PECOTA, as stats, scouts, fans, and even FRAA prior to this year agree that Ellis is quite good defensively. PECOTA may be seeing a decline in performance at age 30. Splitting the difference between PECOTA (+3) and Zone Rating seems reasonable. Bobby Crosby’s PECOTA (-3) seems to be out of line with his previous performance and perception as a plus defender, but his weighted ZR is giving too much credit for 2004 and 2005 when he was legitimately excellent. Once again, a midrange guess seems reasonable. The numbers all agree on Kotsay, who may be getting by on reputation (or perhaps there is a trend and CFs all get rated highly in the Fan Report). The consensus:

A's Consensus Rankings

Player	Pos	Runs
Nick Swisher	1B	0
Mark Ellis	2B	6
Bobby Crosby	SS	4
Eric Chavez	3B	7
Bobby Kielty	LF	0
Mark Kotsay	CF	-4
Milton Bradley	RF	3
Jason Kendall	C	0
TOTAL		+16

Texas:

Player	Pos	ZRruns	Fan Score
Mark Teixeira	1B	3	75
Ian Kinsler	2B	-3	60
Michael Young	SS	-3	66
Hank Blalock	3B	-4	61
Brad Wilkerson	LF	2	36
Kenny Lofton	CF	-3	30
Frank Catalanotto	RF	-6	42
Gerald Laird	C	6	68

Reasonable agreement across the board. The final configuration of the Rangers outfield is still undecided. Catalanotto may be used largely at DH, leaving the RF duties to Nelson Cruz (good defensively), or Sammy Sosa (not so much). The consensus:

Ranger's Consensus Rankings

Player	Pos	Runs
Mark Teixeira	1B	5
Ian Kinsler	2B	-3
Michael Young	SS	-1
Hank Blalock	3B	-1
Brad Wilkerson	LF	0
Kenny Lofton	CF	-3
Frank Catalanotto	RF	-4
Gerald Laird	C	8
TOTAL		+1

Seattle:

Player	Pos	ZRruns	Fan Score
Richie Sexson	1B	-6	37
Jose Lopez	2B	2	56
Yuniesky Betancourt	SS	-7	82
Adrian Beltre	3B	10	78
Raul Ibanez	LF	2	36
Ichiro Suzuki	CF	-8	91 (as RF)
Jose Guillen	RF	3	N/A
Kenji Johjima	C	2	49

Lots of areas of discrepancy here. PECOTA grades Sexson as positive defensively, but this doesn’t match with fan perception or the PBP data. The consensus is Sexson = BAD. Jose Lopez, by contrast, grades out badly by PECOTA. Last year’s Zone Rating and Fan Report say average-ish. PECOTA strikes out again. Betancourt is somewhat of an enigma: the fans love his defense, the PBP metrics hate it, and PECOTA says average. Mike Emeigh at Baseball Think Factory has suggested that young defenders often have a difficult first year when transitioning to the majors, but subsequently recover. Betancourt was very well regarded in the minors, and the numbers support that. I would hedge the bets and say Betancourt will be average next year, but his upside is extremely good. Finally we consider Ichiro! The numbers say he has been lackluster in RF the past few years, and thus predict a very bad performance when moving to the more demanding role of CF. However, the scouting reports on Ichiro are universally positive, and I have seen comments saying that his positioning in RF is unique, leading to strange numbers. This is one instance in which I would ignore the numbers. Ichiro will be an average CF, and may end up above average. The consensus:

Mariner's Consensus Rankings

Player	Pos	Runs
Richie Sexson	1B	-5
Jose Lopez	2B	0
Yuniesky Betancourt	SS	0
Adrian Beltre	3B	8
Raul Ibanez	LF	-1
Ichiro Suzuki	CF	0
Jose Guillen	RF	1
Kenji Johjima	C	0
TOTAL		+3(with TUP)

The final scorecard, then is one good fielding team (Oakland), 2 average teams (Seattle and Anaheim), and one bad fielding team with a good catcher (Texas).